The spin of Nicolas Sarkozy is stopped, but it is still not slow pitch pitching machine possible to exclude an April 21 upside for the next president. This is reflected in a poll Ifop for the Journal du Dimanche, conducted Thursday and Friday with 923 people. Thus, Martine Aubry would 23% of the votes in the first round and Marine Le Pen would qualify for the second round with 22% of the vote while Nicolas Sarkozy would be eliminated with 21.5% of the vote. In a previous survey, conducted from May 17 to 19, Mr Sarkozy defeated Madame Le Pen by 22.5 against 21.5, while Aubry was 24% of the vote. If the champion was socialist Francois Hollande, it would be 26% against 22% for Nicolas Sarkozy and 21% for Marine Le Pen. In the previous survey, Sarkozy was 22.5% and its opponents score unchanged. The survey, which includes applications from Borloo, Dominique de Villepin, François Bayrou, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Nicolas Hulot, is hard for the incumbent president, after a series of surveys more optimistic. According to a Harris Interactive poll for Marianne (from June 3 to 5). Mr Sarkozy was up 4 points, it is opposed to Francois Hollande or Martine Aubry (23% and 24% of the vote). But the two Socialist candidates are experiencing a similar increase (27%, 5, 25%, 4) and crush the second round. Whether Ségolène Royal was a candidate, it would be overtaken by Marine Le Pen and Sarkozy would win the second round. Still, Mr. Sarkozy sees his popularity rating rose slightly, from two to five points from its record low, according to the institutes. The experts are cautious opinion. "Nicolas Sarkozy was passed by the record unpopularity of Jacques Chirac during his second term. We go from the unpopularity record the deep unpopularity," said Jerome Sainte-Marie (CSA). "The decline was halted. It is a small rebound. It is too early to speak of a conquest," says Jérôme Fourquet (FIFG). Since the case DSK, doubt the electorate lives. If 70% of French people do not want Mr Sarkozy is elected, 57% think it will, according to Harris Interactive. The distrust which prevailed during the winter, including the UMP, has become blurred. Mr Sarkozy has lost ground with fans of the UMP, the elderly and the upper classes, who were missing since the attempt to install his son as head of the business district of Defence, according to John -Daniel Levy (Harris Interactive). The pollsters do not measure DSK effect as such. "I used the term slow poison, but for now, it's an intellectual construction. As a pollster, I do not have the translation," confesses Mr. Sainte-Marie. In the spirit of the French, the drama was confined to a personal matter. "Women Voters has not left the PS," said Mr. Levy. Mr Sarkozy is expected that the case of PS prevent the attack on morality and money. The defection of Dominique Strauss-Kahn is a harbinger of troubles in PS, if the party could not choose a champion. The Greens and the centrist face the same difficulty in selecting their megaphone. The President suddenly embodies a pole of stability. His slight rebound, before the case started DSK, held in a number of factors. First, the end of the Tunisian mess, which had affected his presidential stature and plays into the hands of Marine Le Pen, while a part of public opinion was concerned about a possible wave of immigration. Second, the strategy begins to pay presidentialisation. Mr. Sarkozy has not committed any slippage from the questioning on February 3 magistrates and police in the case of Laetitia Perrais (the girl killed near Pornic in January), which led a strike of the legal world. Recently, Mr. Sarkozy has avoided two pitfalls: the first in saying nothing about the pregnancy of his wife, Carla Bruni, the second quickly by dismissing his Secretary of State, Georges Tron, accused of sexual harassment. "A few months ago, the case would have become a sticking plaster," Mr. Fourquet judge. Finally, while French morale is catastrophic (79% think things will get worse, according to TNS-Sofres), the economic signals are rather positive, with unemployment declining for four months, a growth and a rebound rise in business confidence. The record of five-year becomes more tenable. While the reforms, such as pensions, non-replacement of an employee retiring on two or tax shield, remain very unpopular. But a large number of measurements (minimum service, university autonomy, status autoentrepreneur, etc..) Approved, says Fourquet (FIFG), which is preparing a survey on the subject. "There are a lot of work, tempers Emmanuel Rivière (Sofres). There is a gap between the perception of measures, and finally an assessment of an individual." M. Riviere judge the issue of security "hackneyed", the of taxation dangerous – "there are only taking shots" – but the idea is good to praise the achievements of large loan. The President will give the subject a press conference in late June. Mr Sarkozy knows that there is more unpopular than was Valery Giscard d'Estaing to one year of the election. But the right, who believed his certain defeat, began to say that the game is no longer a foregone conclusion. May the force be with us, we will need. Beware to